The federal agency’s three-month forecasts for the United States released in late January—for February, March and April—predict below-average temperatures for the upper portion of the Pacific Northwest and Montana, including the Idaho Panhandle. The three-month temperature outlook predicts likely below-average temperatures for a large swathe of the West that includes Oregon, Northern California, the rest of Idaho, northern Wyoming and most of the Dakotas.

The three-month precipitation outlook issued by the NOAA predicts above-average precipitation for eastern Washington, the Idaho Panhandle and western Montana. A likelihood of above-average precipitation is predicted for a vast area that ranges from central Washington and eastern Oregon across central and southern Idaho toward the upper Midwest and parts of the East.

The long-range forecast is similar to one issued by the NOAA late last fall, when weather experts predicted a La Niña weather pattern would return to the United States for the third consecutive winter, likely bringing wetter-than-average conditions to the northern Rockies and Pacific Northwest. That forecast predicted that much of the southern part of Idaho would likely receive an above-normal amount of precipitation, with most of the state having equal chances in December, January and February to have above-average or below-average temperatures.

La Niña is a widespread cooling of water in the equatorial Pacific Ocean that can alter jet-stream patterns across the globe. La Niña and its opposing climate pattern of warmer waters—El Niño—together create a cycle called the El Niño Southern Oscillation, or ENSO.

In early January, the NOAA reported that La Niña conditions had weakened some, with the Pacific moving toward a so-called “ENSO-neutral” phase in which neither La Niña or the El Niño conditions are present. The agency predicted an 82% chance that a shift to ENSO-neutral occurs by spring, from March to May.

Though the climate is transitioning to an ENSO-neutral state, the three-month outlook for the Northwest is similar to the one issued in late fall, said Greg Kaiser, forecaster for the National Weather Service in its Pocatello office.

“It’s pretty much a continuation of what we’ve had,” Kaiser said.

In a report this week from the Accuweather forecasting company, AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Paul Pastelok said that it is still too early in the year to predict whether El Niño will replace La Niña before next winter. Those forecasts can’t begin to be made with significant accuracy until May or June, he said.

“If La Niña quickly transitions to El Niño before the end of the year, it can have a significant impact on the tracks of storms and the overall weather patterns across North America compared to the past three years when La Niña was the dominant force,” the Accuweather report states.

In a typical El Niño pattern, Accuweather stated, storms and moisture often target California and the southern part of the United States.

Meanwhile, the snow and rain that has hit the West this winter has helped abate some of the severe drought conditions that have plagued the region.

“Things are looking pretty good right now. The drought has eased back a little bit,” Pastelok said.

On the five-point scale used by the U.S. Drought Monitor, “extreme” and “exceptional” drought are the two worst classifications.

“Since the start of December, the exceptional drought has been all but erased across the West, and the areas facing extreme drought have been significantly reduced,” Accuweather stated.

The NOAA’s latest drought-monitor map issued on Thursday gives Blaine County and much of south-central Idaho a “moderate” drought designation, with west-central Idaho in a slightly better “abnormally dry” category.

Mountain snowpack levels and the composition of the snowpack are major factors in determining drought in the Rocky Mountains. On Thursday, the snow-water equivalent—a measurement of how much water is in the snowpack—was 149% of average Thursday at a federal measurement station at Chocolate Gulch, north of Ketchum.

Four large areas of the West were designated Thursday as experiencing “extreme” drought—only exceeded by the “exceptional” drought designation. Those areas included east-central Oregon, northwestern Nevada, southeastern Nevada and parts of central Utah.