The raw numbers may pale compared to major cities, but Blaine County had the nation’s highest concentration of lab-confirmed COVID-19 cases in the nation yesterday, according to data compiled by the New York Times.
And, its calculation is an underestimate.
As of Friday morning, the community the paper calls Hailey, Idaho—which corresponds with the entirety of Blaine County—had 2.82 cases of the disease per thousand people, assuming 82 cases and 29,000 people. New York City’s metro area—the largest epicenter of the American outbreak—had 43,016 cases spread across 20 million people, or 2.15 cases per thousand.
That number has since increased. On Tuesday morning, New York Governor Andrew Cuomo stated that infection rates in the city have risen to 43,139. His statement limited analysis from the full 20 million-person metropolitan area to just the 8 million people living in the city. This new estimation puts New York City’s infection rate at around 5.14.
The Times’ estimation of Blaine County’s population at 29,000 people is inaccurate, though. Sun Valley Economic Development put the number at 22,212 in its 2019 profile of the region. The U.S. Census Bureau says 23,021 as of July 1, 2019, its most recent count. And here, as everywhere, case-counts continue to rise. Friday morning’s 82 cases grew to 187 by Tuesday morning, according to the South Central Public Health District.
That data puts Blaine County’s caseload between 8.12 and 8.42 per 1,000 residents, far surpassing the cases per thousand residents infected in the original epicenter, Wuhan, China.
In areas this small, these sorts of analyses can fluctuate wildly with little input. And, as the Times freely admits, variations in the rate and availability of testing makes accurate comparisons difficult. Given the limitations and time-lag of testing, there’s every reason to believe there are more cases out there than there are lab-confirmed tests in every corner of the country.
So, what do you do with that information? “Take this seriously,” according to a group of eight St. Luke’s Wood River emergency physicians. Self-isolate and abide by the shelter-in-place order designed to stem the spread of the disease.
“We want you to know, given the community spread, that you should not wait for the test or test result,” Drs. Terry O’Connor, Malie Kopplin, Deb Robertson, Jim Torres, Brock Bemis, Keith Sivertson, Terry Ahern and Brent Russell wrote in a letter to the Idaho Mountain Express published Wednesday. “There are measures you can take now to protect yourself, your family, friends, neighbors and way of life. Self-isolate. Don’t leave the Wood River Valley to recreate elsewhere. It’s well known that we have a very high rate of infection; 5B plates are not going to be welcomed outside of Blaine County. Moab and Twin Falls don’t need our virus. Stay home. Save lives.”
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I think we can all agree that the handling of this pandemic by local leadership is troubling. It’s hard to say, but true.
I hope community members realize that true leadership would not have allowed folks from Washington (the US “hot spot”) to host large social gatherings here. We should have limited flights and access to the valley. Furthermore, after the Brotherhood responsibly shared that 6 guests who were in SV tested positive for Covid, the community—and tourist—should have been notified to shelter-in-place. Mandated quarantine of 14 days for folks who traveled—including those who own second homes and came here to seek refuge.
Instead, it seems that leadership was naively optimistic, was in denial, thought we were “stronger” or “untouchable”, or did not have the strength of leadership to make hard decisions required to keep the community safe.
Some will say, hindsight is 20/20. However, we had the luxury of seeing what happened in Wuhan and Italy—so it’s hard to find excuses.
With that said, it's time to move forward and now support each other. Wash your hands. Don’t touch your face. Stay home.
Seriously, if you don’t feel well—don’t go to the grocery store—stay home for 14 days. Just do it. Let Atkinson’s deliver and stop infecting the community.
Sending strength to those who are sick and the staff at St. Luke’s, Atkinson’s Market, PO, restaurants, and others working so hard on behalf of our community. Let's show them our appreciation and stay home.
What scares me most is that 60% of Americans think Trump is doing a good job and that the MtExpress poll asking if Blaine County is doing a satisfactory is about the same. That 60% can't see the incrediable incompetence of our leaders that are putting our lives at risk. We are going to get more of the same by giving them positive feedback. Collectively we are really dumb.
What scares us is that we know 8 - 10 people in town who are home with all the symptoms, cough, fever, hard to breathe, temperature who have not been tested and are just staying home toughing it out hoping it will pass. How may other people know of friends who have it and are doing the same thing??
A SVCO ticket checker named Colin was exposed around the 10th of March . He probably had it 7 days before hand with no symptoms . he was admitted to the emergency room two days in a row around the 15th . It is safe to concur that SVCO had a positive Covid employee . He tested positive on 23rd . Thankfully it looks as if he is doing well . The question is , how many got it in the lift line ?
Totally agree with your comment. Meeting in the middle which generally gets a watered down solution that doesn't work either, is not an option. Strong and intelligent leadership would have been our best ally but we are left vulnerable and surrounded by people that have plenty of talk and opinions each of them but no real answers. It all comes down to leadership. Thank you for sharing your thought with us. Above all we are all humans. I share your frustration.
Yeah saw that in hailey with a construction company one of the trucks a had a “Hailey Fire “ plate . womder how that crap gets into the health care??
The liability falls solely on our elected county and city leaders and everyone who put them there. Knowing the danger, they have taken great strides to protect Sun Valley investments by allowing transportation in and out of here through the airport and road system. Where was everyone's concern earlier when demands to close the airport were made? Perhaps the grant money obtained from the FAA keeps the airport from closing but people could have been turned away both arriving and departing. Making them self isolate for 2 or 3 weeks. People in this valley have been way too passive for too many years. Just look around you and you can see the destruction it has brought to this community from greed and overgrowth. You all reap what you sow.
Okay Blaine County, what else can we do? 1) How can we get on the list to get the new rapid tests to our valley? 2) Consider making an online order for groceries and pick up curb side—does it really matter if you don’t get the exact items you want? 3) When you head out to exercise with a friend, are you really physically distancing 6 feet? 4) Are you sharing rides? 5) How can we get more ventilators to our local hospital? 6) protective gear for hospital staff 7) Do Drs & nurses working day and night need local isolated accommodations? 8) Stay home! We can do this!
It appears that some in the valley believe in herd immunity and are intentionally spreading the virus. I posted this yesterday and nobody has responded. Am I wrong?
Lots of people out and about..
Still waiting for SVCO to console any groups who visited and offer anything for our suffering friends and families . Total silence from the people who stayed open to long for the betterment of their bottom line . If they wait any longer to do so , then we will really know the true existence of their cover up . We are now getting national press coverage from several networks , we are suffering greatly , we need to hear from you , its your community , your brand your village !
RUHolding.....oh brother! Conspiracy theory at its best. Yes, the SVCO's only intention was to ruin this valley with a massive virus ripping through its community. Give me a break. Baldy was closed the day after all of Colorado's mountains closed and the same day as Lake Tahoe. Are you expecting SVCO to have more insight into a pandemic than everyone else? If you are looking for some hand-holding find another town and leave this valley to those that just get on with it without pointing fingers at others for what is a global issue.
Pull your head out of the sand . No malicious conspiracy here just noting the fact they have been eerily silent and you are wrong about the closing dates . Settle down take a deep breathe . We want transparency from SVCO .
Wrong about Baldy being closed on Monday, March 16th? This is from SV's website:
Effective March 16, 2020, all mountain operations at both resorts will close. This includes lift operations, ski school, dining outlets, retail and rental services. In Sun Valley, village operations including restaurants and lodging will continue to operate with limited services until further notice.
Wrong about Colorado resorts closing on Sunday March 15th? This from Alterra Resort's website:
After careful thought and deliberation of our duty in the face of the COVID-19 (Coronavirus) outbreak, and in what I believe is in the best interest of our guests, employees and local communities, Alterra Mountain Company will suspend operations at our 15 North American ski resorts, starting the morning of Sunday, March 15, until further notice. All lift operations, food and beverage, retail and rental services will be closed until further notice.
I am dumbfounded why you feel SVCO owes you anything. Transparency of what? If you want support and guidance, look to your mayor, Blaine County and the state of Idaho. What exactly is SVCO going to say that you would be satisfied with?
And, lastly, we are calm and collected within our household. This too shall pass and in the mean time, we are following the orders from Blaine County for self-isolation. I find no need to slam on SVCO for something that you say is a "cover up."
Calm in our household, following the county's order of self-isolation, knowing that this too shall pass. I am dumbfounded why you need a transparency from SVCO. What exactly are they going to say to you that will be satisfactory? Your use of the words 'cover up" suggests something malicious.
By the way, my dates on when various resorts are spot on. SV closed on Monday 3/16.........Alterra Resorts closed on Sunday 3/15. Those are the facts!
They really want this all to just go away. Potential lawsuits by potentially exposed workers and guests? Loss of wages, medical care, unsafe working conditions? All scary to any company. Oh, and insurance companies might want to claim some loop hole to not pay. Would you be running around talking loudly if there might be any sort liability on your part?
No but I expect a decent Public Health response. The viral outbreak at the SKI party happened two weeks before anyone in the Public were informed. I have little to no confidence that the carriers were intensely interviewed, or that every conceivable person that had been in contact with the infected were interviewed and immediately tested. The fact that it took two to three weeks for the Public to even be informed is beyond laughable from a Public Health standpoint. Keep patting yourself on the back Blaine County, but the semester grade in Public Health is an F and is underlined by the fact that per capita infection rivals China and Italy. Disgraceful. Meanwhile, the Airplanes fly, and few are wearing masks. The Public Health F is probably too high.
Due to lack of available testing, we will never know how many actually had it. I assume it was probably in the many thousands.
Tony Robbins is one of the main culprits . He had a bunch of people here from China . Staying at the Lodge, and they were all over River Run Lodge, before the Brotherhood. And the welcomed many ,many more , and stayed open well after all the warning signs . Just Sayin ???
He's a P O S. That's not surprising, at all. Is anyone tired of winning, yet? Happy we sold out? Happy our celebrity worship brought this scum bag to our once glorious community, only to be a scourge? All for money. THIS is why I'm angry. I care about people, not money. I can see exactly how the worship of money brought us here. And I can see right through all of you money lovers, and your fake righteousness. Karma is finally going to show you all. I truly hope it was all worth it..
Yep . Agree . Now lets see how all those greedy out of town developers with deep pockets that our mayor loves so much do now .
Well you got me. I like every thing here, including the money. I can work just about any kind of job here, and do all right. The fishing is pretty good too. I really hoped all this was overblown. I believe that this will all get taken care of real soon. What else does any one have to do but fix this.
@PHONY1 Coronavirus is the great equalizer...It does not discriminate between the has and the has nots. Be a good person and show some compassion for your fellow humans.
Ha ! I love how people now to celebs . Of course he did !
Did anyone from that Tony Robins group actually get sick? Did anyone with contact? Did anyone from any other large groups? How about the wedding party of 200 from Washington?
Did any other group. NBS says they got sick here, see facebook
This newspaper said
"There is evidence that some cases of as-yet undiagnosed illness in the Wood River Valley could be linked to an annual summit of the National Brotherhood of Skiers, held in Sun Valley from Feb. 29 through March 7. According to the Brotherhood’s Facebook page and a communication sent to all club presidents, at least 126 skiers from different chapters of the national society have been ill, with at least six who were in Sun Valley testing positive for the COVID-19 virus.
In addition, according to multiple sources in the community, 15 to 20 people began developing symptoms consistent with COVID-19 roughly one week after March 6, when they all attended an aprés ski party at River Run Lodge hosted by the Brotherhood. "
Those 6 positive tests were before Blaine county had one positive test. Just saying... The newspaper took the article down.
Interesting how soon after visitors from neighboring counties who visited Blaine counties after March 8 for two weeks were warned, why not the week earlier
Didn't NBS have the first warning signs?
When we had the first case confirmed Sun Valley shut down soon after.
Just Sayin???
Want to see the true potential impact of ignoring social distancing
https://nypost.com/2020/03/27/alarming-cell-phone-map-shows-how-spring-breakers-could-have-spread-coronavirus/ any ideas on how to track SV skiers when they returned home... just sayin.
Here's what we know in Idaho https://www.boisestatepublicradio.org/post/heres-what-we-know-about-300-confirmed-cases-coronavirus-idaho
Are you serious about this?!?! Why does SVC owe anyone anything. There a resort owned by a oil tycoon. Why you assume they care about any valley residents is baffling. They do t pay locals a decent wage. Why would you expect them to address issues that are global?
https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/03/27/821958435/why-death-rates-from-coronavirus-can-be-deceiving. this is real actual reporting.
talk about sensationalism......wow
Sensationalism? reporting actual infection rates? I've had three friends in the hospital from this thing. If you think this is overhyped, you couldn't be more wrong. Thanks Mark for putting what is happening here in context.
Check out the official demographics of this county. It could be ugly. Imagine a line of cars trying to get into the parking lot. Nobody wants that.
NPR article is about mortality rates being exaggerated based on small sample of the most sick and at risk or a wider truer sample more representative of the infected population as a whole.
IME article is strictly per capita infection and nothing to do with mortality rates. Blaine County does have a high per capita rate which is what the article is about.
Show up here with 100 other people and there could be 4 who are infected and can infect others. A group of 50 and 2 infected. At the grocery store with 25 and 1 is enough to transmit the virus and increase the spread.
Not sensationalized as you claim, but hopefully will put into perspective how important it is to stay home and/or stay away from others - like our local health professionals have asked.
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